Full-Chain CCS Execution, Shared Infrastructure Wins, and 45Q Bankability Rise

CCS Competition Shifts to Full-Chain Execution

Holcim’s Höver membrane CO2 project and Mitico’s Bangchak refinery pilot show CCS competition moving from capture claims to field-tested integration. Holcim’s retrofit, using Cool Planet Technologies’ PolyActive membranes, is a demonstration and scale-up program with reported targets of about 5,600–5,750 tCO2/yr in the first phase, roughly 170,000 tCO2/yr at the next stage, and as much as 1.3 million tCO2/yr if fully scaled. Holcim is framing it as field validation, not a commercial cement CCS deployment.

Mitico’s Bangchak pilot is the sharper operating proof point: about 99% CO2 capture over roughly 400 hours under real refinery conditions, including flue-gas variability, safety checks, and interlock logic at the hydrogen unit. That shifts the value proposition from lab efficiency to retrofit readiness and operational reliability.

The commercialization bottleneck is now downstream. Buildout in Wilhelmshaven, the Baltics, Kuantan, and rail-linked corridors shows that liquefaction, terminals, shipping, rail, and storage access are becoming the gating assets for emitters without nearby sequestration. In Germany, export routes are already being positioned for cement, lime, waste incineration, glass, and steel.

CCS Value Shifts to Shared Transport and Storage Infrastructure

Japan and the UK moved CCS hubs from planning into execution this week. JOGMEC launched an FY2026 design process for a shared CCS value chain in Japan, centered on common CO2 liquefaction, temporary storage, and ship transport, with the Mizushima industrial area in Kurashiki as an early anchor and an initial target of 3.43 million tons per year ahead of commercialization by 2030. In the UK, Northern Endurance began installing CO2 pipeline infrastructure, turning a multi-user transport and storage backbone into physical construction.

In the US, North Dakota endorsed a $205 million state-backed loan package through the Bank of North Dakota, split between $45 million for Minnkota Power Cooperative and $160 million for Reliant Carbon Capture & Storage. Exxon’s Rose project in Texas also saw its Class VI permit decision delayed by at least a month at the Railroad Commission.

The pattern is clear: value is concentrating in shared midstream assets that reduce integration cost and unlock multi-user volumes, while public capital is being used to de-risk early infrastructure. For operators, the priority is securing hub access, storage rights, and permitting early. For vendors and investors, the best positions are shifting toward transport, liquefaction, storage, and permit-backed infrastructure, not capture equipment alone.

45Q Becomes More Bankable Than Carbon Pricing

IRS and Treasury Notice 2026-50 expands the 45Q safe-harbor pathway for qualifying storage starting January 1, 2025, reducing a key compliance and recapture risk for CCUS and DAC projects. If EPA’s electronic GHG reporting system is unavailable by March 31 after the reporting year, taxpayers can use an alternative method; the safe harbor also now covers qualified carbon oxide used in EOR and natural gas recovery, and can be used for recapture determinations. That makes 45Q revenue easier to underwrite and lowers a specific bottleneck in project finance.

The contrast with carbon pricing is stark. In Alberta, analysis of industrial emitters under TIER found the 2023 carbon price added less than $1.12 per barrel on average, with upper-bound estimates still below $5/bbl through 2050. In India, analysts are calling for tighter benchmarks, price-stability tools, and stronger MRV to make pricing credible and revenue-generating. The strategic read-through is clear: administrable tax credits are becoming more bankable than carbon prices alone. Operators and investors should favor U.S. projects that can reach FID under 45Q-backed structures, while vendors should focus on MRV, tax-credit qualification, and delivery models that reduce compliance and recapture risk.

Retrofit-Ready Capture Becomes the New Competitive Benchmark

Mantel’s commercialization push shows carbon capture competition shifting from lab-scale chemistry to retrofit-ready systems that can be engineered into existing plants. The company is advancing a high-temperature, liquid-phase capture process built around a proprietary molten borate loop, with claimed performance of roughly 97% lower energy losses than conventional capture, CO₂ purity above 99.9%, capture costs below $50 per ton, and capture rates of about 95%–98% of emissions.

Its case is not just about capture efficiency. Mantel says the process runs at industrial temperatures, recovers heat as steam, and cuts net energy use to about 3% of state-of-the-art systems, directly attacking the operating burden that has limited solvent-based capture. Wood’s role in FEED and fired-equipment integration matters because project readiness and plant fit are becoming the real proof points.

If these economics hold at scale, the retrofit benchmark resets around total system cost, energy intensity, and integration simplicity. That shifts value toward vendors that can convert process claims into repeatable deployments, and toward operators and investors backing technologies with a clear path to engineered execution.