Tomakomai and Edmonton Show CCS Now Lives or Dies on Storage Proof and Price Support

CCS is moving into a stricter phase where projects must prove the reservoir and the revenue case before they can be financed.

Updated

What is this trend?

Carbon capture and storage is being decided by two hard gates—proven reservoir capacity and bankable price support—rather than capture technology alone.

  • Tomakomai shows storage proof now gates FID, with results needed before credible capacity can be set.
  • Edmonton shows technical readiness is not enough when carbon prices, credits, and capital costs miss the model.
  • The market is splitting between projects with validated storage plus policy-backed revenue and those exposed to merchant pricing.
  • Integrated CCS stacks that bundle capture, transport, storage, and support are becoming the financeable standard.

What’s the latest?

JAPEX drilled a second well at Tomakomai, extending its onshore-to-offshore campaign from Masago-cho toward the seabed to test whether the subsurface can safely store CO₂.

Open-access CO2 hubs, storage-proof CCS, and verifier-ready carbon data reshape project finance

How it developed

  1. Reuse-First CCS Reaches Construction, CO2 Access Becomes the Moat, and CBAM Tightens Trade Pressure
    • CO2 Access Becomes the Critical CCS Moat

  2. CCS retrofit momentum, federal removals demand, and Denmark’s permitting lead
    • Thailand’s Cement Pilot Signals the Next CCS Retrofit Playbook

  3. Full-Stack CCS Benchmark Emerges, DAC Shifts to Industrial Reliability
    • CF’s Blue Point Sets the First Full-Stack CCS Procurement Benchmark

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