Allies adrift: fractured order fuels asia’s arms race and tech wars

The post-Cold War liberal order is unraveling as traditional alliances fracture and the United States pivots away from its historic role as global leader. The National Security Strategy’s acknowledgment of a multipolar world underscores this shift, with Europe increasingly anxious about being caught between Russian and American interests, and Asia’s attention gravitating toward China’s ascent. Meanwhile, the U.S. appears to be embracing a more isolationist, offshore balancing approach, prioritizing hemispheric dominance over its former values-based partnership with Europe—a move likened to trading a storied alliance for the 'girl-next-door' of Western Hemisphere hegemony.

The weakening of the transatlantic alliance has become starkly apparent, with influential voices such as Friedrich Merz declaring that 'the West no longer exists' and the Pope openly criticizing American policies that risk fracturing long-standing partnerships. This sense of dissolution is mirrored in the emergence of new regional blocs and power centers, exemplified by proposals like the 'C5' supplanting the G7, and French President Emmanuel Macron’s overtures to Xi Jinping. These developments highlight a world in which old alliances are giving way to a patchwork of regional groupings and shifting spheres of influence.

The erosion of global institutions such as the WTO and the UN has accelerated as China and Russia actively undermine their effectiveness, with the UN’s credibility now compared to the defunct League of Nations. Strategic vetoes by Russia on the Ukraine War and by China on the Rohingya Crisis exemplify how these powers exploit institutional weaknesses, contributing to a broader decline in the liberal international order. As one analysis notes, 'For the first time in 35 years, we once again live in a world shaped primarily by the clashing interests of powerful nations rather than by liberal internationalism,' with Moscow and Beijing pursuing 'unlimited aims' to reshape the global landscape.

By early 2026, the global order is experiencing not just a gradual transition but a fundamental rupture, as described by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: 'We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.' A succession of crises in finance, health, energy, and geopolitics has exposed the dangers of extreme global integration, prompting middle powers to seek new forms of cooperation among themselves rather than relying on unreliable great power partners. This fragmentation is further exacerbated by great powers acting unilaterally, the breakdown of constructive dialogue at forums like Davos, and China’s quiet but strategic expansion of influence through behind-the-scenes diplomacy.

The decline of global institutions and alliances is also playing out in regional theaters, where countries like South Korea are exploring new security pacts to counterbalance China’s coercion, and Myanmar’s military-run elections expose the erosion of democratic norms and international legitimacy. Meanwhile, regional disputes such as the Thai-Cambodian border conflict reveal how rising nationalism and contested narratives of legitimacy are undermining traditional mechanisms for conflict resolution, further fragmenting the global order into competing blocs and spheres of influence.

Xi Jinping’s sweeping purges of the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army since late 2025 have exposed deep fissures within China’s leadership, undermining both military cohesion and the regime’s internal stability. The removal of top generals like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli—many with combat experience—has left the PLA’s high command depleted, with political loyalty prioritized over operational competence. Analysts suggest these purges go beyond anti-corruption efforts, hinting at fears of coup plots and a profound trust deficit within the military, which in turn casts doubt on Beijing’s near-term appetite for high-risk actions such as a Taiwan invasion, as Willy Lam notes, 'Most generals with experience have been removed. Taiwan is safe for the moment.'

Amid this internal turbulence, China is doubling down on technological control and cyberspace governance, with the Politburo emphasizing the need to 'cut off interest chains' fueling internet chaos and to shape online narratives in line with core socialist values. Xi Jinping’s directives have repositioned artificial intelligence as a regime-critical tool for predictive governance and surveillance, while efforts to counter nationalist excesses online reflect a desire to maintain rational public sentiment and social stability. This comprehensive approach mobilizes legal, educational, and technological levers to reinforce Party leadership in the digital sphere, even as Beijing seeks to expand its influence in international internet rule-making and narrative projection.

Externally, China’s strategic ambitions are marked by a more assertive military posture—particularly around Taiwan—yet also by a nuanced foreign policy that balances confrontation with accommodation. The PLA’s regular large-scale exercises, such as JUSTICE MISSION 2025, are designed to tighten the military threat around Taiwan and signal resolve to both the US and regional actors like Japan, even as operational challenges in urban warfare and leadership decapitation persist. At the same time, Chinese scholars and officials advocate for leveraging regional diplomacy, trade ties, and opportunities arising from European tensions, while conceptualizing US-China competition as a 'mutually assured disruption' that could, in theory, evolve into a messy but stable coexistence.

However, China’s global ambitions are increasingly constrained by mounting economic and social strains at home. Rising rural unemployment, weakening factory jobs, and the lingering effects of the property market collapse have eroded the foundations of social stability and complicated Beijing’s growth narrative. In response, the government is betting on technological innovation—particularly in health and aging services—to stimulate consumption and manage demographic headwinds, but these efforts unfold against a backdrop of declining cross-province migration and persistent export dependence, raising questions about the sustainability of China’s economic model and the regime’s capacity to weather internal discontent.

The U.S. National Security Strategy unveiled in late 2025 marked a decisive shift in American posture, emphasizing economic rebalancing with China and demanding greater burden-sharing from allies like Japan and South Korea, all while doubling down on military investments—particularly naval power—in the Asia-Pacific. However, this recalibration has not been universally well received: critics such as Bill Emmot lambasted the document as a 'declaration of political war' and 'extraordinarily hostile to long-time allies,' fueling perceptions of U.S. unilateralism and complicating alliance cohesion at a time of mounting regional tensions.

Despite Washington's calls for increased allied contributions, frustration has grown among key partners—most notably Tokyo—over what they perceive as U.S. silence and a strategic pivot toward homeland defense rather than direct support against China. This perceived reticence, highlighted by Politico and echoed in Asia-Pacific capitals, has injected uncertainty into regional security dynamics, prompting allies to question the reliability of U.S. commitments even as the Pentagon insists on maintaining a robust deterrent posture.

As China's military strategy evolves—prioritizing swift, targeted operations such as a potential decapitation strike on Taiwan—U.S. allies are adopting a mix of tactical engagement and hedging. Taiwan, for instance, has responded to U.S. arms deals with a blend of bravado and skepticism, signaling toughness to deter Beijing while privately acknowledging the limitations of such gestures. Complicating matters, China's cultural and linguistic affinity with Taiwan affords it operational advantages that make intelligence gathering and countermeasures by the U.S. and its allies significantly more challenging.

By early 2026, the fragmentation of U.S.-led alliances has become increasingly apparent as partners like Canada and the UK pursue tactical engagement with China, seeking greater strategic autonomy despite Washington's objections. Canada’s decision to cut tariffs on Chinese EVs and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s planned visit to Beijing underscore this trend, while Chinese officials and media actively encourage such moves—China Daily, for example, warned Ottawa against letting its China policy be dictated by Washington, and Chinese academics have stoked unease by questioning U.S. intentions toward allies. This diplomatic maneuvering reflects Beijing’s growing confidence in reshaping global alignments to dilute American influence.

The Taiwan Strait and its surrounding waters have become the epicenter of an intensifying regional security crisis, as China, Japan, and the United States recalibrate their military and diplomatic postures. Japan, under Prime Minister Sai Tagi and later Takayuchi, has taken the unprecedented step of signaling a potential military response to any Chinese attack on Taiwan, a move that has drawn sharp rebukes from Beijing and triggered aggressive Chinese naval maneuvers near the disputed Senkaku Islands. The presence of the US 7th Fleet, including the USS George Washington near Tokyo Bay, further underscores the risk that a local flashpoint could spiral into a broader conflict involving the US-Japan alliance, with each side leveraging both military deployments and nationalist rhetoric to assert their positions.

Economic and social dimensions of the China-Japan rivalry are amplifying the regional stakes, as Beijing orchestrates nationalist backlash through boycotts and travel bans that have already battered Japanese companies like Isetan, Mitsukoshi, and Japan Airlines. These measures, coupled with historical grievances such as the enduring memory of the 'rape of Nanjing,' are fueling public animosity and hardening government stances on both sides. The resulting economic fallout and societal polarization are not merely collateral damage but strategic tools in a broader contest for influence, deepening the fragmentation of regional power and complicating prospects for diplomatic de-escalation.

Japan is undergoing a dramatic transformation in its security posture, driven by both perceived US retrenchment and China's increasingly assertive behavior. With a projected 2026 defense budget of $60 billion—about 2% of GDP—and discussions about joining the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact or even pursuing its own nuclear weapons, Tokyo is signaling a willingness to shoulder greater regional deterrence responsibilities. This shift is not occurring in isolation: Japan is deepening security ties with Taiwan, exemplified by appointing former Self-Defense Force Chief Shigeru Iwasaki as an advisor to Taiwan’s Executive Yuan, and is exploring intelligence consolidation to match Beijing’s hard power, setting the stage for a more complex trilateral nuclear competition with China and North Korea.

The South China Sea remains a simmering flashpoint, with US-Philippines military cooperation and Japan’s direct military support to Manila reflecting a broader coalition aimed at counterbalancing China’s maritime ambitions. However, the effectiveness of these alliances is tempered by the Philippines’ limited capacity and domestic political volatility, leading some Chinese analysts to view the cooperation as more symbolic than operationally decisive. Despite these constraints, the coalescing opposition to China—driven by US policy follow-through and Japan’s shift from diplomacy to military enabling—signals a realignment in Southeast Asia, even as China’s regional presence continues to deter outright instability and underscores the generational nature of any potential settlement.

Elsewhere in Asia, sovereignty and identity disputes—such as those involving Tibet, the Dalai Lama succession, and the Thai-Cambodian border—add layers of complexity to the regional security landscape. Beijing’s tightening control over Tibet and its framing of reunification with Taiwan as a historical and identity-driven imperative demonstrate that not all flashpoints are purely military in nature. Meanwhile, localized conflicts like the Thai-Cambodian border skirmishes, fueled by nationalist narratives and fragile ceasefires, highlight that the fragmentation of power and realignment of alliances extend well beyond the US-China axis, creating a patchwork of instability across the region.

China’s approach to technological competition has evolved from treating artificial intelligence as a frontier industry to embedding it at the heart of state governance and social control. By late 2025, Xi Jinping was openly directing officials to harness AI as a 'support condition' for the regime, emphasizing its utility in understanding and shaping public opinion, as well as enabling predictive governance. This pivot is not merely inward-facing: Beijing has also set its sights on global internet governance, with Xi calling for China to actively participate in the formulation of international rules and to use digital platforms to 'tell China’s story well,' aiming to project a credible, lovable, and respectable image to the world.

The Chinese leadership’s strategy for cyberspace governance is a multi-pronged campaign to reinforce Party control, sanitize online discourse, and align digital content with 'core socialist values.' In late 2025, the Politburo’s 'Five Upholds' doctrine—upholding Party leadership, prioritizing the people, and maintaining integrity—was paired with a crackdown on profit-driven internet 'interest chains,' such as Multi-Channel Networks (MCNs) that manage influencers. This is not just about policing content for political correctness, but also about curbing digital ecosystems that prioritize engagement at the expense of ideological conformity, as seen in the explicit command to 'cut off interest chains' and guide platform algorithms.

China’s narrative control extends to combating both hyper-nationalist and chauvinistic online currents, seeking instead to foster a rational, positive social mentality. The government’s intervention in controversies like 'Chigua Mengzhu'—where Han-centric historical interpretations gained traction—demonstrates a preference for stability over triumphalism, with authorities discouraging 'excessively triumphalist interpretations' that could destabilize public sentiment. This nuanced approach to narrative management is reinforced by a blend of legal, administrative, and educational measures, as well as advanced cybersecurity and data governance protocols, mobilizing all stakeholders to maintain a 'clean cyberspace.'

By early 2026, the technological arms race between China and the U.S. had spilled into the public sphere, with platforms like TikTok becoming battlegrounds for narrative and data governance. The saga of TikTok’s survival in the U.S.—after years of bans, lawsuits, and a last-minute deal—underscores the stakes: with 180 million American users, the platform is not just a social media app but a conduit for information and influence, raising unresolved questions about the reach of Beijing’s soft power. This contest reflects a broader trend in which technological infrastructure, from AI to social platforms, is inseparable from the struggle for global influence and domestic stability.

China’s technological push is also deeply intertwined with domestic governance and military modernization, as seen in the Party’s drive to deploy tech-led public services and the high-profile purges within the People’s Liberation Army. From smart health and aged-care action plans to anti-corruption campaigns targeting military leaders like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, Beijing is leveraging technology to address demographic challenges, boost consumption, and ensure political loyalty within the armed forces. These efforts highlight how the battle for technological supremacy is as much about internal control and readiness as it is about projecting power abroad.