Burnham’s popularity soars as labour faces squeeze from both sides

By early 2026, Labour found itself caught in a dual electoral squeeze, losing ground to the Green Party on its left flank and Reform UK on its right. This fragmentation of Labour’s traditional voter base is vividly illustrated by the Greens’ surge to seventeen percent in London and metropolitan areas under Zack Polanski, culminating in victories like the Hackney mayoral race, while Reform UK capitalized on disaffected voters in former Labour bastions such as Hartlepool, which shifted from a cast-iron redoubt to a populist trophy in less than five years. As Professor Sir John Curtice observed, Labour’s sharpest declines often coincide with Green surges rather than Reform’s strength, underscoring the complex, multi-directional pressures reshaping the party’s electoral landscape.

Labour’s strategic pivot towards hardening its rhetoric on immigration to counter Reform UK has inadvertently accelerated its alienation from younger, socially liberal, and environmentally conscious voters, who increasingly gravitate towards the Greens. This approach, aimed at neutralizing Reform’s populist appeal, risks deepening Labour’s erosion on the left, as the party’s traditional coalition frays amid competing demands. Meanwhile, nationalist parties like the SNP and Plaid Cymru are further fragmenting Labour’s base by capturing pro-European, anti-populist voters in devolved nations, quietly challenging the very cohesion of Britain’s political union and complicating Labour’s efforts to maintain a unified electoral front.

Andy Burnham’s leadership image has been a rare bright spot in the fragmented UK political landscape, beginning his premiership in July 2026 with a narrowly positive favourability rating of 38% against 35% unfavourable, making him the most popular new prime minister since Theresa May in 2016. Despite this personal appeal, government approval has lagged behind, with Labour’s overall record since 2024 dragging down public confidence; Burnham’s net favourability rose to +13 by late August, yet government approval crept up only modestly from 17% to 22%, highlighting a disconnect between his individual leadership and the party’s broader performance.

Burnham’s personal brand resonates beyond Labour’s base, as evidenced by significant approval boosts among both Labour and Liberal Democrat voters when his name is invoked, suggesting his leadership is perceived as a unifying asset amid a divided electorate. This cross-party appeal contrasts sharply with the negative perceptions surrounding other leaders, underscoring how Burnham’s image bolsters Labour’s fortunes even as the party grapples with wider challenges.

In stark contrast, Nigel Farage’s leadership has suffered a precipitous decline, with his net favourability plummeting from -27 to -44 over the past year and public belief in his effectiveness as Reform UK leader dropping 51 points to -33. Widespread associations of dishonesty, extremism, and untrustworthiness—terms like 'racist' and 'liar' frequently attached to him—have eroded his standing, leaving only 19% of Britons viewing him as a prime minister in waiting, down seven points since June. This leadership crisis has coincided with Reform UK’s fall to third place in national voting intentions, signaling a profound loss of voter confidence.

Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch is emerging as a more viable right-leaning leadership figure, surpassing Farage with 26% of Britons seeing her as a prime minister in waiting and gaining notable support among Conservative and Reform UK voters. Although her favourability remains modest at 32% with a net rating of -15, this marks a significant improvement over the past year and reflects shifting leadership dynamics on the right. Compared to other party leaders like Zack Polanski and Ed Davey, who maintain low and stable net favourability ratings, Badenoch’s rising profile signals a potential recalibration of voter confidence within the fragmented multi-party system.

By early 2026, Reform UK under Nigel Farage and the Green Party led by Zack Polanski emerged as formidable forces reshaping the UK’s political landscape. Reform UK capitalized on Labour’s decline by capturing traditional Labour strongholds such as Hartlepool, transforming it from a cast-iron Labour redoubt into a populist trophy within five years. Simultaneously, the Greens made significant inroads among young, urban, and liberal voters in London and metropolitan areas, securing 17% of the vote and challenging Labour’s traditional coalition. This dual rise fragmented the political field, creating a multi-front challenge that squeezed Labour from both right and left, signaling a profound shift in political competition.

Despite Nigel Farage’s declaration of a 'truly historic shift' with Reform UK’s ascent, the party’s momentum and Farage’s personal standing faced notable setbacks by late 2026. Support for Reform UK dropped six points to 24%, with voting intention down to 16%, while Farage’s net favourability plummeted from -27 to -44. Public perception skewed heavily negative, with 71% associating him with terms like 'racist,' 'liar,' and 'dishonest,' undermining his credibility as a prime ministerial contender. Even within Reform’s base, while 75% viewed Farage positively—highlighting patriotism and intelligence—22% still expressed criticism, reflecting internal tensions and challenges to his leadership.

The rise of other right-wing figures such as Kemi Badenoch further complicated Reform UK’s position, as she gained traction as a prime ministerial hopeful, surpassing Farage in public favorability. With 26% of Britons and a third of Reform voters viewing Badenoch as a potential leader, this shift indicated a tilt back towards the Conservative Party among right-leaning voters. Meanwhile, despite the fragmentation caused by smaller parties like Reform UK and the Greens, the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system continued to favor the party with the largest vote share, as demonstrated by Labour’s strong showing in the Makerfield by-election. This suggests that while Reform UK and the Greens disrupt traditional alignments, the two-party system retains some resilience.

Recent polling data reveals a deeply fragmented and volatile UK political landscape where no party holds a decisive lead, underscoring the unpredictability of upcoming elections. Reform UK and Labour are locked in a near-dead heat, each polling around 23%, with the Conservatives trailing closely at 19-20%, all within the margin of error. This tight race is compounded by steady support for smaller parties like the Greens and Liberal Democrats, polling at 13% and 12% respectively, which further splinters voter preferences and complicates strategic campaigning.

Labour's fortunes have notably improved under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, whose personal approval ratings outpace rivals such as Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch by double digits. While Labour's overall voting intention remains closely matched with Reform UK, Burnham's strong head-to-head performance, especially among progressive voters, signals a potential shift in voter sentiment compared to the waning support during Keir Starmer's leadership. However, Green Party supporters remain divided between Burnham and Zack Polanski, reflecting ongoing fragmentation within the progressive camp.

Despite Kemi Badenoch's efforts to restructure the Conservatives and boost her personal popularity, these gains have yet to translate into significant polling improvements, highlighting persistent volatility in voter support. Meanwhile, emerging parties like the Greens and Reform UK face internal challenges and skepticism due to questionable candidate selections and policies that do not withstand serious scrutiny, which undermines their polling stability and contributes to the electorate's protest votes against the two established parties. This environment suggests that if either major party can consolidate and present a credible centrist alternative, they could capitalize on widespread voter dissatisfaction.

Labour’s strategic recalibration in the Makerfield by-election centers on presenting Andy Burnham as a relatable, local alternative to Keir Starmer, tapping into voters’ yearning for authenticity and connection with community-rooted leadership. This approach aligns with Labour’s focus on pressing voter concerns such as immigration and the cost of living, which remain dominant issues on the doorstep and fuel a growing sense of anger directed at the party’s national leadership. By foregrounding Burnham’s local ties and addressing these economic and social anxieties, Labour aims to reengage disillusioned voters and counteract political apathy.

Labour’s campaign is contending with the disruptive rise of Reform UK, an insurgent force that threatens to upend traditional party loyalties and inject volatility into the political landscape. This challenge compels Labour to adapt its messaging and tactics rapidly, as Reform UK’s potential to 'send shockwaves through the political establishment' forces a recalibration of campaign priorities and voter outreach strategies. Concurrently, Labour must navigate sensitive cultural flashpoints emerging in the by-election, including contentious debates over policing policies and gender pronoun usage, which complicate voter engagement and require careful balancing to maintain broad appeal amid a fragmented electorate.