Midterm mood sours: pessimism, gas prices fuel voter angst

A pervasive sense of economic pessimism grips the American public, with 59% doubting their chances of improving their standard of living and nearly half (48%) expecting the national economy to worsen over the next year. This bleak outlook is underscored by only 24% rating current economic conditions as excellent or good, while 35% describe them as poor, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction that transcends partisan lines.

Affordability pressures weigh heavily on households, particularly around healthcare, housing, food, and energy costs. Concern about gas prices has surged dramatically—from 34% in January to 56% in July—with 59% expressing skepticism that diplomatic efforts to end the U.S.-Iran conflict will normalize fuel costs. These rising energy expenses threaten to undermine a modest uptick in economic confidence seen in July, as Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index improved slightly but 67% still believe the economy is deteriorating.

Americans’ expectations for economic improvement have dimmed further throughout 2026, dropping from 31% in January to just 23% by July. This growing pessimism is mirrored in political attitudes, with 60% now saying that former President Trump’s economic policies have worsened conditions—a notable increase from 52% earlier in the year and a rising share of Republicans acknowledging this decline.

While mentions of high cost of living and inflation as top economic concerns have slightly declined from their peaks earlier in the year, affordability remains a central issue for voters heading into the 2026 midterms. The persistent anxiety over everyday expenses continues to shape public sentiment, underscoring the economy’s role as a deeply contested and pivotal factor in the upcoming elections.

Partisan divides deeply influence perceptions of election integrity and economic confidence, with Democrats and Republicans sharply disagreeing on issues like fraudulent mail-in ballots versus voter suppression, and confidence in vote counting differing significantly—45% of Democrats express high confidence compared to just 16% of Republicans. This polarization extends to economic attitudes, where neither party holds a clear advantage; 37% of Americans align with Democratic economic policies and 36% with Republican ones, reflecting a near-even split amid widespread economic pessimism, as 47% rate the economy as poor—the highest since 2023.

Voter enthusiasm currently favors Democrats, who lead Republicans 48%-45% in midterm polls, buoyed by a 10-point advantage among those 'absolutely certain' to vote (53% to 45%). This enthusiasm gap is mirrored in engagement metrics: 70% of Democrats say control of Congress 'really matters' to them, compared to 60% of Republicans, and 39% of Democrats have thought a lot about the election versus 22% of Republicans. However, this advantage is fluid, as Republicans could close the gap before November, underscoring the dynamic nature of partisan engagement heading into the midterms.

Political typology groups reveal that ideological consistency strongly correlates with voter engagement and enthusiasm; the most partisan groups—Leftward Progressives, Loyal Liberals, and No Apologies Right—show the highest investment in the 2026 midterms. Conversely, mixed or less ideologically consistent groups such as the Unconventional Right exhibit notably lower engagement, with only 11% having thought much about the election and 43% feeling the outcome really matters. Similarly, the Tuned-Out Middle remains largely disengaged, posing challenges for turnout among politically indifferent voters.

Donald Trump's enduring influence remains a pivotal factor shaping voter decisions, especially among Democrats, 81% of whom view their vote as a repudiation of him. While Trump's approval remains highest among staunchly Republican groups, it has declined significantly among right-leaning factions with mixed ideologies, such as the Unconventional Right, where approval dropped from 78% to 51%. This shift reflects evolving partisan confidence and adds complexity to the midterm landscape, where economic frustrations continue to overshadow other issues despite efforts to rally the base around Trump.

President Trump's economic messaging faces credibility challenges as he dismisses 'affordability' as a Democratic invention, undermining the real financial struggles voters endure. His repeated claims blaming 'radical left Democrats' for the worst inflation in 48 years and promises that oil prices would 'come tumbling down' have been contradicted by facts, with oil hitting $100 a barrel and experts like Yale economist Stephen Roach labeling these assertions as some of Trump's 'biggest economic lies.' This disconnect between rhetoric and reality erodes trust in Republican economic narratives ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Trump’s selective highlighting of economic indicators, such as touting 73 stock market all-time highs driven by tech megacaps, starkly contrasts with persistently low consumer confidence and widespread affordability concerns. His boast about a manufacturing 'golden age,' including claims that Toyota is relocating plants from Mexico to the U.S., is refuted by economic analyses, further weakening the Republican economic message. This pattern of cherry-picking data while ignoring everyday economic hardships fuels public skepticism about the authenticity of his economic success narrative.

Recent policy decisions under Trump, including the imposition of new tariffs starting July 24 and a renewed military conflict with Iran, have exacerbated economic pressures by driving energy prices above four dollars a gallon. These developments not only contradict Trump’s promises of falling costs but also create political and economic headwinds that undermine the GOP’s traditional advantage on cost-of-living issues. Meanwhile, Republican figures like Georgia gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson complicate messaging by shifting blame for affordability from political leadership to business, diluting the party’s unified economic stance.

Trump’s persistent focus on election grievances and attacks on the press distracts from substantive economic discourse, limiting the effectiveness of his messaging. By opening speeches with claims about vote counts in Georgia and accusations of media bias, he diverts attention from pressing economic challenges facing voters. This strategy, coupled with his repeated recycling of grievances and fabricated victories, contributes to public weariness and skepticism, as reflected in polls showing only 33 percent approval of his economic performance.