From just-in-time to just-in-case: resilience reshapes supply chains

By mid-2026, a clear strategic pivot from the efficiency-driven just-in-time model toward a resilience-focused just-in-case approach has taken hold across industries, spurred by global instability and supply chain shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Companies like GE Aerospace and General Motors are leading this shift by increasing inventories, nearshoring production, and diversifying suppliers to mitigate risk, with GM committing up to $1.5 billion to onshore manufacturing and GE Aerospace cutting lead times by 60% to boost engine deliveries. This transition acknowledges that while just-in-time optimized costs for decades, the rising 'Resilience Tax'—the additional expense of redundancy and strategic stockpiling—is now accepted as necessary to ensure operational continuity in an unpredictable world.

Despite widespread recognition of the need to balance cost with risk, many organizations remain ill-prepared for supply chain disruptions, with 71 percent reporting a dual focus on cost and resilience but only 45 percent feeling ready to handle disruptions. This gap is exacerbated by reliance on manual reporting for supply chain data in 65 percent of cases, limiting real-time visibility and rapid decision-making. While advanced risk management tools like predictive analytics and scenario planning are gaining traction, their adoption remains uneven, underscoring a maturity gap in risk-adjusted procurement strategies that emphasize supplier diversification and accelerated decision cycles.

The hospitality sector exemplifies the complex balancing act between resilience and cost pressures, as firms shift from just-in-time to just-in-case by holding additional stock and diversifying ingredients to avoid menu disruptions amid ongoing supply volatility. At the same time, rising costs and margin constraints create a paradox where treasurers must reconcile the need for larger inventories with cash discipline. Innovations such as precision fermentation are emerging as strategic tools to reduce climate-related and supply risks, while supply chain finance evolves from a tactical working capital tool to a strategic mechanism supporting supplier liquidity and multi-tier resilience.

Governments and industries are selectively investing in redundancy for critical supply chain elements deemed too risky to lose, such as semiconductor fabs and key raw materials, often subsidizing domestic production that would not be viable under traditional cost-focused models. This targeted approach reflects a shift from globalization toward trusted partnerships and coordinated investment among allied nations, moving away from isolationism without wholesale duplication of all supply chain components. Cybersecurity has also risen as a top risk concern, expanding the scope of vulnerabilities that resilience strategies must address beyond physical supply disruptions.

By mid-2026, despite a strategic pivot toward balancing cost and risk in procurement, many organizations remained vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to limited adoption of advanced technologies and persistent reliance on manual data reporting. Research from ISM® and Amazon Business revealed that while 71 percent of organizations prioritized cost-risk balance, only 45 percent felt prepared for disruptions, with 65 percent still dependent on manual reporting methods. This gap underscored the urgent need to enhance supply chain visibility and accelerate decision-making through integrated data platforms and scenario planning, which are foundational to a risk-adjusted operating model.

Advanced forecasting, AI-enabled scenario planning, and proactive risk management have emerged as preferred resilience strategies over traditional reshoring efforts. According to Accenture’s 2026 EME Outlook, 59 percent of supply chain and engineering leaders prioritized these technologies, while less than a third planned reshoring. This shift is accompanied by a surge in AI investments—68 percent of leaders intend to increase spending on AI, with 70 percent focusing on workforce upskilling to ensure seamless human-AI collaboration, reflecting a broader commitment to embedding intelligence and adaptability into supply chain operations.

The complexity and volatility of global supply chains, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and compressed retail cycles, have exposed the limitations of traditional siloed tools like spreadsheets and email. Connected supply chain platforms that unify stakeholders and data streams into a real-time environment are becoming essential for resilience, enabling early identification of risks such as supplier capacity constraints or geopolitical disruptions before they escalate. This integration transforms supply chain management from reactive firefighting to proactive orchestration, as highlighted by the growing adoption of unified platforms that facilitate faster, coordinated decision-making across sourcing, compliance, and logistics teams.

In fleet management, technology-driven advances in inventory management and predictive maintenance are redefining parts inventory as a strategic resilience asset rather than a mere warehousing function. Platforms providing real-time stock visibility and data analytics enable smarter forecasting and automated replenishment, supporting a shift from just-in-time to just-in-case inventory strategies. This evolution allows fleet leaders to balance cost control with operational uptime amid supply chain disruptions, marking a critical transformation where data and automation underpin proactive risk management and sustained operational continuity.

By mid-2026, it became clear that many companies remain narrowly focused on assessing risks within their own operations, largely overlooking the complex web of dependencies in their supply networks, infrastructure, and logistics. A striking example is that while 43% of Fortune 500 Europe companies evaluate physical risks to their own facilities, only 7% extend this scrutiny to supplier sites, and fewer than 2% consider broader infrastructure vulnerabilities. Advanced modeling tools, such as those promoted by Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, offer promise in mapping these interdependencies and potential downtime at scale; however, their effectiveness is fundamentally constrained by the persistent lack of comprehensive and high-quality data on suppliers, infrastructure, and logistics networks.

External forces like geopolitical tensions and climate change have emerged as dominant disruptors, underscoring the urgency for companies to expand their risk horizons beyond direct operations. The ongoing Middle East conflict, identified as the fourth major global supply shock in six years, exemplifies how geopolitical instability can cascade through supply chains, causing prolonged business interruptions. Simultaneously, climate threats intensify risks at critical nodes, with Taiwan’s semiconductor hubs facing a projected 36% increase in flood losses and a dramatic rise in heatwave days—from 4-5 annually to as many as 68 by 2050. These compounded risks, including infrastructure failures and logistics bottlenecks that often fall outside traditional insurance coverage, highlight the need for comprehensive, forward-looking risk assessment frameworks.

Sector-specific responses reveal a growing but uneven recognition of hidden and external risks within supply chains. The chemicals industry leads the charge, with 86% acknowledging extreme weather vulnerabilities and 57% implementing mitigation measures, reflecting lessons learned from past disruptions. Meanwhile, sectors like motor vehicles and industrials show higher engagement in assessing supplier facilities—19% and 16% respectively—indicating a gradual shift toward broader risk visibility. Despite these pockets of progress, a significant gap remains across industries in fully integrating supplier, infrastructure, and logistics data into risk management strategies, leaving many companies exposed to unforeseen disruptions.

By mid-2026, commercial insurance has notably shifted from a reactive safety net to a proactive partner in resilience-building, with firms like Swiss Re emphasizing early engagement to help businesses anticipate and mitigate emerging risks well before claims arise. This evolution is particularly evident in the rise of parametric insurance and modular policies designed to address non-physical business interruption risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and economic disruptions, such as trade route blockages and state-sponsored cyberattacks, which traditional asset-focused coverage often overlooks.

Innovative risk financing mechanisms, including captives, structured risk financing, and parametric coverage, are gaining traction as businesses seek tailored solutions beyond conventional annual insurance programs. These approaches are especially vital for complex organizations facing unpredictable supply chain disruptions and tariff-induced challenges, as seen in the US-Canada tariff dispute, which has exposed significant protection gaps in traditional policies that require physical damage to trigger claims. Industry experts like Ramnivas Mundada advocate for clearer triggers and modular insurance designs to cover specific non-damage interruptions such as port delays and tariffs without imposing prohibitive premiums.

The commercial insurance market in 2026 benefits from abundant capacity and strong competition, enabling organizations to optimize risk transfer strategies amid rising claim costs driven by inflation, litigation, cyberattacks, and extreme weather. Concurrently, AI and advanced analytics are revolutionizing underwriting by allowing more granular risk assessment and capital allocation, empowering business owners to leverage client-sourced data for more informed renewal discussions and proactive risk management. However, heightened geopolitical instability, particularly conflicts in the Middle East, continues to prompt increased scrutiny in specialty lines like marine, aviation, and terrorism insurance.

Geopolitical and economic uncertainties have intensified demand for specialized insurance products such as supply chain, trade credit, and political risk insurance, reflecting a broader shift toward resilience-oriented coverage. With 41.1% of businesses prioritizing supply chain insurance due to global instability, insurers remain cautious, tightening policy wordings and exclusions around tariffs and sanctions, as noted by GlobalData’s Beatriz Benito. Industries heavily reliant on international trade, including automotive and semiconductors, face acute vulnerabilities, underscoring the critical need for innovative underwriting strategies that can accommodate complex, non-physical risks while supporting businesses in renegotiating and diversifying their supply chains.

By mid-2026, escalating geopolitical conflicts, notably in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, combined with rising economic nationalism in the U.S., have profoundly disrupted global supply chains, prompting businesses to seek enhanced insurance protections against indirect operational risks. This surge in demand has positioned supply chain insurance as the most sought-after product, outpacing cyber and business interruption coverage, as firms prioritize safeguarding daily commercial operations over direct asset protection amid widespread shipping reroutes and trade bottlenecks like those at the Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz.

Insurers are responding to these complex risks with heightened underwriting discipline, particularly in specialty lines such as marine, aviation, and terrorism coverage, where geopolitical instability has led to tighter policy wordings and cautious capacity deployment. Aon’s global chief executive Christian Hoffman highlights this repricing and emphasis on policy terms, while claims from missile strikes and energy cost spikes underscore the broadening impact beyond traditional specialty markets. Meanwhile, economic volatility and claims inflation in sectors like U.S. casualty and automobile insurance are driving insurers to recalibrate pricing, capacity, and deductibles, compelling businesses to maintain meticulous loss records and engage brokers early to avoid coverage pitfalls.

The persistent tariff disputes, exemplified by the U.S.-Canada trade tensions and the imposition of 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods, have further complicated supply chain resilience and insurance exposures. These tariffs have inflated costs for imported vehicle parts and construction materials, extended repair durations, and increased business interruption risks, while also creating regulatory challenges affecting D&O coverage due to investigations into origin and labeling compliance. Businesses have adapted by diversifying suppliers and scrutinizing continuity plans, but compressed margins and tight inventories limit financial flexibility, underscoring the need for brokers to assist clients in revisiting coverage and risk-financing strategies amid ongoing uncertainty.

Reflecting a strategic pivot from efficiency to security, governments and businesses are investing in redundancy for critical sectors like semiconductors, mining, and energy infrastructure, accepting a 'Resilience Tax'—the additional societal cost to reduce reliance on vulnerable external sources. This selective duplication targets assets deemed too vital to lose rather than full-scale deglobalization, signaling a fundamental reshaping of supply chain economics where resilience becomes the bedrock consideration alongside cost and availability. As one expert noted, 'If you don't have proper resilience, then your costs are going to be impacted,' highlighting how geopolitical control over key transit routes, such as Russia’s dominance of the Bering Strait, further complicates supply chain planning.

Punitive tariffs and regulatory crackdowns are inflating costs, delaying repairs, and exposing companies to new insurance and compliance risks—forcing a rethink of continuity plans and broker strategies.