Trucking faces reckoning: safety, pay models under fire

Despite regulatory efforts such as the Trump Administration's 2025 reinstatement of the English language proficiency rule (CFR 391.11), systemic enforcement gaps continue to allow unqualified and illegal immigrant drivers to obtain CDLs, severely undermining trucking safety. Cases like Manvir Singh, who entered the US illegally in 2023 and was issued a CDL under investigation, and Manmeet Singh, who lacked a valid CDL yet worked for a company employing drivers illiterate in English, illustrate how these loopholes persist and contribute to fatal crashes, including the notorious 2025 Florida Turnpike incident that claimed three lives.

The trucking industry's exploitation of regulatory loopholes through 'chameleon-like' tactics—such as shedding registration numbers and shifting drivers and equipment among layers of LLCs—enables companies with horrific safety records to evade shutdowns and continue unsafe operations. This structural evasion, combined with phantom driver scams where companies falsely add non-existent co-drivers to circumvent hours-of-service rules, has led to egregious safety violations, including fatal crashes investigated by the NTSB. Despite clear evidence and calls for a 'corporate death sentence,' offenders remain operational, highlighting a critical failure in enforcement and penalty frameworks.

However, increased regulatory enforcement beginning in early 2026 is beginning to weed out non-compliant operators, fostering a fairer market that rewards fleets investing in safety and compliance. Industry leaders like NFI, which recently won the ATA safety award as the top large fleet in America due to significant investments in truck safety features and driver training, exemplify this shift. As one insider noted, this crackdown is not only leveling the playing field but also creating a safer trucking environment with fewer accidents, benefiting the entire community by promoting safer roads.

By mid-2026, it became clear that trucking's entrenched mileage-based pay models not only masked critical leadership and compliance gaps but also fundamentally misaligned compensation with the realities of driver work. Despite trucking being a trillion-dollar industry, the focus on miles over time neglected the full scope of driver labor, leading to operational inefficiencies and a distorted understanding of workforce utilization. This systemic oversight contributed to widespread dissatisfaction, as drivers frequently reported, "I worked all day, but I only got paid for my miles," revealing a profound disconnect between pay and effort that undermines retention and safety.

The reliance on mileage-based pay has been identified as a root cause of a staggering 60% waste in trucking efficiency, with drivers often feeling compelled to prioritize productivity over safety to maximize their earnings. Companies like AI Fleet recognize these issues, yet their continued adherence to mileage metrics underscores the industry's resistance to embracing time-based compensation models. This pay structure not only incentivizes unsafe driving behaviors—since "how many miles they get determines how big their check is"—but also exposes carriers to legal challenges that could target pay schemes as evidence of deficient safety cultures.

While flat salary models might alleviate some safety pressures by removing the direct link between miles driven and pay, they introduce new challenges, such as potentially dampening driver motivation to maximize effort. This trade-off highlights the complexity of designing compensation systems that balance safety incentives with productivity demands. The industry’s current predicament suggests that neither pure mileage nor flat salary models suffice alone, pointing to an urgent need for innovative, data-driven pay structures that more accurately reflect the multifaceted nature of trucking work and promote both retention and safety.

By mid-2026, trucking companies continue to grapple with entrenched operational and financial pressures despite a somewhat improving rate environment. Persistent driver shortages and capacity constraints remain critical challenges, as companies struggle to recruit even a single driver for specialized rigs, let alone multiple drivers per truck, underscoring the severity of labor scarcity. This shortage is compounded by rising costs in insurance and equipment, particularly with new emission standards like Lonnox coming into effect, forcing firms to slash back-office and recruiting staff just to stay afloat.

Regulatory enforcement efforts have begun to reshape market dynamics by removing non-compliant operators who previously undercut rates, thereby creating a fairer playing field for compliant fleets. This crackdown not only enables companies like NFI—recently honored with the ATA safety award—to invest heavily in safety features and driver training but also fosters a safer overall trucking environment, reducing accidents and benefiting the wider community. Such strategic emphasis on compliance and safety is emerging as a competitive advantage amid tightening regulations.

The fixed nature of driver labor costs and the rapid turnover cycle of trucking assets—requiring fleet renewal every three years without the financial leverage benefits seen in real estate—pose significant hurdles for fleet growth and financial planning. Market fluctuations exacerbate these challenges: when freight demand surges, companies lose drivers to competitors; when demand wanes, scarce freight limits driver utilization. This volatility, combined with a tight driver market and increased turnover driven by more carrier-switching opportunities, compels companies like Nightwift to prioritize operating efficiency over fleet expansion, even as they maintain high tender rejection rates.

Despite rising spot and contract rates fueled by supply-side pressures, cost inflation, and a tight driver market, carriers remain cautious about fleet expansion due to concerns over return on investment and the need to preserve operational effectiveness. As J.B. Hunt’s SVP Josh Phelan notes, the industry requires higher rates to sustain reinvestment, yet many companies seek assurance that capital expenditures will yield sufficient returns before committing to growth. This prudent approach reflects a balancing act between cost discipline and the imperative to maintain the 'muscle' of trucking operations amid ongoing market uncertainties.

By mid-2026, trucking companies began leveraging advanced hardware integrations beyond traditional GPS to capture granular data on driver activities during on-site operations. This innovation, as highlighted in recent analyses, allows carriers to dissect the often overlooked 'time risk'—periods such as loading and unloading where drivers are physically present but effectively idle. Applying methodologies like failure mode effects analysis, borrowed from manufacturing, the industry is starting to recognize time risk as a critical operational metric that has been historically under-measured and unmanaged.

This newfound ability to quantify trapped time is transforming how carriers and shippers negotiate compensation, shifting from flat time-based models to more nuanced, data-driven agreements that share the benefits of efficiency gains. For example, if a driver spends an hour and a half on site but only one hour is productive, the remaining 'trapped upside' can be identified and split between parties, incentivizing smoother operations. However, despite these technological advances—including GPS, TMS, ELD, and AI—there remains a cautious industry tendency to apply new tools within existing paradigms rather than fundamentally rethinking compensation and operational frameworks.

By mid-2026, the trucking industry is grappling with acute driver shortages that have companies struggling to staff even a single rig, let alone two drivers per truck, underscoring the urgent need to reevaluate compensation packages to attract and retain talent. The Truck Driver Pay Index, a collaborative metric tracking gross driver earnings including per diem, surged to an unprecedented 170.04 in June 2024—a 13.5% jump in just two months—reflecting this tight labor market and the industry's reactive pay adjustments, albeit with a typical lag of four to six months behind spot freight rate changes. As one analyst observed, 'with the driver pool shrinking as an industry, you’re liable to see a pretty good step change needed in driver pay this year and into 2027,' highlighting the persistent upward pressure on wages amid recruiting challenges.

Despite these significant pay increases, driver compensation has not kept pace with other rising operational costs, complicating carriers' margin recovery efforts amid ongoing inflation. Industry experts note that while driver pay took a 'really big step up' in 2021 and 2022, it remains a smaller piece of the cost inflation puzzle, which includes equipment and regulatory compliance expenses. This dynamic creates a delicate balance where higher wages are essential to attract qualified drivers but simultaneously act as a cap on how fast freight cycle expansion can proceed, as Josh aptly puts it, 'when drivers are making more money, everybody's making more money,' yet this also 'creates a cap on how fast this expansionary cycle will overcorrect.'

The ongoing shift toward dedicated freight operations is reshaping pay structures by offering drivers more stable earnings through weekly minimums and consistent rates, contributing to the Driver Pay Index's recent highs. This trend, coupled with the industry's strengthening spot rates and escalating hiring costs, has intensified competition for drivers, especially among small to medium-sized fleets, driving wages upward in tandem with operational expenses. As one industry insider summarized, 'you can't pay them what you paid them a year ago or two years ago. And that's okay because you're getting more money too. So we're all rising tide lifts all boats,' signaling a broad-based compensation realignment aligned with market realities.

While rising pay is a critical lever for recruitment and retention, the prevalent mileage-based compensation model raises concerns about its influence on safety culture, as it inherently incentivizes productivity over cautious driving. Legal experts suggest that this pay structure could become a focal point in safety litigation, with critics arguing that 'this company's pay package doesn't incentivize safety,' highlighting the tension between maximizing miles and maintaining safe driving practices. Alternative models like flat salaries may reduce pressure to overdrive but risk dampening productivity, illustrating the complex trade-offs trucking companies face in aligning incentives with both safety and operational goals.

Traditional fleet safety programs falter largely because they focus on reactive measures—tracking past incidents and enforcing compliance—rather than proactively shaping driver behavior. This approach creates a perception gap where 80% of drivers consider themselves excellent, yet only 33% meet that standard, leading to costly risks and defensive attitudes that stall progress. Managers become overwhelmed as temporary safety gains plateau without meaningful declines in collisions or near misses, leaving fleets stuck in a cycle of repetitive coaching and driver disengagement.

Modern safety programs that integrate predictive analytics, behavioral science, and positive reinforcement demonstrate that lasting behavioral change is achievable and measurable. For example, one fleet achieved a remarkable 38% improvement in driver behavior within just 40 days by shifting from punishment to personalized feedback, achievable goals, continuous coaching, and meaningful recognition. This data-driven, trust-building approach not only enhances safety but also positions fleets to reduce collisions and lower insurance premiums by up to 20%, while unlocking operational benefits like improved fuel efficiency and reduced vehicle wear.