XRP slides below key support as Senate delays clarity act

XRP's price is precariously hovering around the critical $0.93 support level, a price point laden with historical and legal significance since Judge Torres' July 2023 ruling that XRP is not a security. This level, which previously acted as resistance, now serves as a pivotal support zone amid a dense liquidity band just below one dollar, where a breach could trigger a sharp sell-off toward targets as low as $0.60 or even $0.10, reflecting investor capitulation risks.

Technical indicators paint a decidedly bearish picture for XRP, with a triple hidden bearish divergence on the daily chart and an unprecedented monthly RSI low of 40.14 signaling sustained downward momentum. This bearish trend is further underscored by XRP's recent daily candle closing at its lowest since November 2024, a persistent 'death cross' formation with the EMA50 below the EMA200, and directional indicators like the ADX at 14.6 that reflect a weak and directionless trend, all suggesting that the downtrend remains intact.

The $1 parity level emerges as a critical liquidity zone and immediate technical barrier; failure to hold this threshold exposes XRP to significant downside risk, with a confirmed daily close below $1 opening a potential 57% decline toward $0.43. Despite occasional rallies, such as the July 21 spike to $1.15 linked to the CLARITY Act, XRP has struggled to sustain gains, reinforcing the notion of a bull trap amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty and market challenges.

Looking ahead, XRP faces a clear downtrend characterized by lower highs and lower lows, with downside targets identified at $0.93, $0.85, and potentially $0.77, representing drawdowns of up to 23%. Liquidity analysis suggests an 80% probability that prices will revisit these lower liquidity pools before any meaningful rebound, making the $0.93 zone—anchored by Judge Torres' legal clarity—a strategic entry point for low-leverage or spot buyers despite prevailing bearish momentum.

The US Senate's postponement of the Digital Assets Market Clarity Act vote has extended XRP's regulatory limbo, directly dampening investor confidence and price momentum. By leaving Washington without a vote before the August recess, the Senate pushed the procedural vote to mid-September, causing XRP to underperform as the only major token among the top 10 to close in the red, dropping 2.05% and marking a 4.96% loss over the past week amid a mostly flat market. This legislative gridlock has left XRP trading below critical technical indicators like the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, forming a bearish death cross that reflects the market's pricing in of ongoing uncertainty.

The Clarity Act holds particular significance for XRP as it aims to reclassify it, alongside Solana and Dogecoin, as a non-security under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), thereby resolving years of costly litigation and regulatory ambiguity. Ripple’s co-founder has highlighted this reclassification as the ultimate prize after protracted legal battles, with the bill poised to establish the first formal US legal framework for crypto assets—something that matters more for XRP than for Bitcoin or Ethereum. However, the bill faces steep political hurdles, including a filibuster requiring 60 votes and resistance from Democrats, making its 2026 passage a long shot and perpetuating the uncertainty that continues to weigh on XRP’s outlook.

This persistent US legislative gridlock complicates technical analysis and price target setting for XRP, as investors grapple with an unclear regulatory environment that obscures invalidation levels and downside risk thresholds. Analysts note that a 4-hour close below $0.9843 would signal further downside, but the massive price swings and the absence of the Clarity Act’s guiding framework make such determinations challenging. Consequently, XRP’s price action remains tethered to the legislative calendar, with market participants effectively 'waiting for the Clarity Act' to break the stalemate and provide the clarity needed to restore confidence and catalyze a more decisive trend.

XRP whales and large holders have been quietly accumulating during recent price weakness, particularly as XRP stabilizes within the $1.00–$1.20 range, signaling a potential bottoming phase amid the broader bear market. CryptoQuant’s data reveals that this quiet absorption is characterized by stable, sizable buy orders balanced by roughly equal selling pressure, with the 90-day taker cumulative volume delta drifting to neutral rather than showing signs of capitulation. This calm accumulation phase suggests that despite bearish technical indicators like the death cross and negative momentum, large holders are positioning themselves strategically for a market turnaround.

According to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, the ongoing accumulation by XRP’s largest cohorts aligns with the final phase of the crypto cycle’s decline, implying that downside pressure is diminishing. This shift in market positioning by whales and major holders indicates a strategic move to absorb supply quietly, which could set the stage for a recovery as the bear market winds down. Such behavior underscores a nuanced market dynamic where large holders are preparing for a potential rebound even as broader sentiment remains cautious.

Despite the US Senate's ongoing delay in voting on the CLARITY Act, Ripple continues to expand its ecosystem internationally, exemplified by the recent integration of its RLUSD stablecoin into Notaben. This move underscores Ripple's strategic pivot to global markets amid domestic regulatory gridlock, highlighting a stark contrast between active ecosystem development abroad and legislative inertia at home. However, this regulatory uncertainty in the US continues to weigh heavily on XRP's price dynamics, as the absence of clear legislation has left the token vulnerable to significant downside risks.

The broader global crypto regulatory environment is advancing steadily, with countries and platforms embracing clearer frameworks that facilitate innovation and adoption. In contrast, the US remains mired in legislative delays, as the stalled CLARITY Act vote exemplifies, creating a challenging and uncertain environment for XRP domestically. This dichotomy not only hampers XRP's growth potential in its home market but also forces investors and stakeholders to navigate a fragile support structure, where technical indicators such as a 4-hour close below $0.9843 could invalidate bullish setups and trigger further declines.

Amid this regulatory tug-of-war, technical analysts have identified a potential long entry zone for XRP between $1.06 and $0.9942, contingent on both market conditions and the eventual clarity provided by US legislation. This nuanced outlook reflects the market's cautious optimism, balancing the promise of Ripple's global ecosystem advancements against the persistent uncertainty of US regulatory outcomes. Investors are thus advised to monitor these price levels closely, as they represent critical thresholds that could signal either a rebound or deeper downside in the absence of legislative progress.